On 12 June 2025, on BNR News Radio 📻

TRANSFERs CEO, Gerald Baal, explained to a Dutch exporter about the implications of the trade war for medium-sized enterprises and handed out a tool that helps companies to cope with geopolitical uncertainties, the so-called Market Selection Tool.

On 22 January 2025, on BNR News Radio 📻

TRANSFERs CEO, Gerald Baal, was asked to explain to entrepreneurs and export directors on how Donald Trump’s election to the presidency will affect international trade with the USA and proposes solutions to this situation.

The second part of the interview was a very fascinating business stories of entrepreneur Patrick de Nekker, from earth water

Trump’s Plans

Trump’s ideology of America first has been his most popular remark between his followers this election process. After his inauguration party, he proceeded to sign multiple executives orders about various topics of interest to the Republican Party. Multiple of those were regarding imports and exports protectionism laws, in order to protect the US market from foreign economies. The main countries that the Trump administration plans to inflict harsh tariffs and quotas on are: Mexico, Canada, China, and the European Union. These implications mean that the US is on its way to protect its markets by making it harder for its main exporters to get their exports into the country.

To start with, what are the announced plans of Trump’s current administration?

Secondly, in this article, you will be able to read about how to cope with the possible increase of US import tariffs. 

 We divided in three groups: European Union, Canada/Mexico and China.

USA 🇺🇲 -EUROPEAN UNION  🇪🇺

Trump has stated that the US has been treated unfairly by the European Union when it comes to trade. He has been vocal about the tariffs imposed by the EU, arguing that they are unbalanced when compared to American ones. The current major tariffs set between them are:

• A 3.5% tariff from the EU to the US and 2.7% from the US to the EU on average for exports of goods, with higher tariffs on steel at 25% and aluminum at 10%.
• The US implements tariffs on aircraft (10%) and agricultural goods (up to 25%), which has generated tensions.
• As part of the aircraft subsidy conflict, the US imposed 25% tariffs on various EU agricultural products, including cheese, wine, olive oil, and pork.

With Trump’s new term underway, his administration has reinforced protectionist measures, intensifying trade tensions with the EU.

Key Updates:

• Matching Foreign Tariff Rates: The administration is advancing its plan to mirror foreign tariffs. If a European country imposes a 15% tariff on a U.S. product, the U.S. will apply the same rate on similar European goods.
• New Tariffs on European Exports: In January 2025, Trump suggested tariffs of 10% to 20% targeting key European industries, particularly automotive and industrial sectors, with a focus on Germany.
• Increase in Auto Tariffs: In March 2025, the US confirmed a 25% tariff on imported cars and auto parts, prompting immediate backlash from European automakers and stock market fluctuations.
• New Tariff Collection Agency: Trump has announced the creation of the External Revenue Service, a new U.S. government department dedicated to collecting tariffs, duties, and foreign trade revenues.
• EU Retaliation Measures: In response, the EU has drafted countermeasures worth €28 billion, including a 50% tariff on American whiskey and higher duties on U.S. agricultural exports. These tariffs, originally set for April 1, have been postponed to mid-April as negotiations continue.
• Leverage for Energy & Defense Deals: The US aims to use these tariffs as leverage to pressure the EU into increasing purchases of American energy products (LNG) and military equipment.

While negotiations continue, both sides remain firm in their positions, raising concerns over a prolonged trade dispute.

USA 🇺🇲 – CANADA 🇨🇦 – MEXICO  🇲🇽 

In recent weeks, President Donald Trump has enacted significant trade measures affecting imports from Canada and Mexico, citing national security concerns related to illegal immigration and drug trafficking. These actions have notably impacted the economic relations among the United States, Canada, and Mexico.​

Imposition of New Tariffs

On March 4, 2025, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, effective immediately. This move aims to address concerns over border security and the flow of illicit substances. ​

• Retaliatory Measures: In response, Canada and Mexico have initiated measures to counteract these tariffs, including potential reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods, which could escalate trade tensions and disrupt established supply chains. ​

• Legal Disputes: The tariffs are viewed by Canada and Mexico as a violation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), potentially leading to legal challenges and straining international trade relations. ​

Adjustments and Exemptions

On March 6, 2025, the Trump administration announced adjustments to the tariffs:

• USMCA-Compliant Goods: Products meeting USMCA rules of origin are exempt from the tariffs until a process is established to apply duties to non-compliant content.

• Energy and Potash Products: A lower 10% tariff is applied to Canadian energy products and potash that do not meet USMCA criteria. ​

Potential Renegotiation or Withdrawal from USMCA

These tariff actions have raised concerns about the stability of the USMCA, with potential outcomes including:​

• Reinstatement of Pre-USMCA Tariffs: Without the USMCA, preferential tariff rates would be lost, resulting in higher costs for imported goods. ​

• Regulatory Divergence: The absence of a unified trade framework might lead to differing standards and regulations among the three countries, complicating compliance for businesses.

Stricter Rules of Origin and Content Requirements

The administration is enforcing more stringent rules of origin, requiring higher percentages of North American-made components in products to qualify for tariff exemptions. Import quotas and sector-specific tariffs, particularly targeting the automotive and agricultural sectors, are also under consideration to address perceived trade imbalances. ​

Enhanced Border Inspections and Customs Procedures

In line with President Trump’s focus on border security, there has been an increase in inspections and more rigorous customs procedures. While aimed at addressing security concerns, these measures might slow down trade, causing delays and higher costs for importers and exporters. ​

These developments underscore the complexities of international trade policy and the potential ramifications for North American economic relations.

USA 🇺🇲  – CHINA 🇨🇳

President Donald Trump has intensified efforts to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China by implementing significant tariffs and proposing further trade measures. These actions aim to address concerns over intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and trade imbalances.​

Current Tariffs:

• United States: Effective February 4, 2025, a 10% tariff was imposed on all imports from China. This rate increased to 20% on March 4, 2025. The tariffs encompass a broad range of Chinese goods, including electronics, machinery, and textiles. ​

• China: In retaliation, China announced tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, effective March 10, 2025.

  • 15% Tariffs: Applied to U.S. chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton.​

  • 10% Tariffs: Applied to U.S. sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. ​

New Proposal:

President Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on goods from China and a 20% tariff on all other U.S. imports. He stated that these measures aim to address the fentanyl epidemic affecting the U.S. ​

Current Situation:

• U.S. Concerns: The U.S. government has raised issues regarding Chinese subsidies in sectors such as solar panels and steel. These subsidies are perceived to distort market access for U.S. products in strategic areas, including technology and aviation. ​Council on Foreign Relations.

• China’s Response: China has indicated plans to implement duties on U.S. chemical and industrial products in retaliation to U.S. trade measures. Additionally, China maintains that state aid does not restrict market access for U.S. products, despite regional variations favoring certain industries. ​

These developments underscore the complexities and potential repercussions of the evolving trade relationship between the United States and China

Viable strategies for companies looking to mitigate the impact of high tariffs and gain access to the U.S. market. 

• Diversification of Trade Partnerships: 
  • Experts recommend that European companies seek to diversify their export markets to reduce dependence on the U.S. By exploring opportunities in emerging markets and strengthening European trade, businesses can mitigate the risks associated with U.S. protectionist policies.
• Enhancing Competitiveness:
  •  Investing in innovation and improving competitiveness are advised strategies. By focusing on high-quality production and technological advancements, European companies can better withstand external trade pressures. Exporting products and solutions with a high added value, makes them less vulnerable to price increases that may occur due to increasing import tariffs.
• Engaging in Policy Dialogue:
  •  Specialists suggest that European governments and industry leaders engage in constructive dialogue with the incoming U.S. administration to advocate for fair trade practices and seek mutually beneficial agreements. Diplomatic efforts may help in reducing the likelihood of a full-scale trade war.
• Legal Recourse:
  •  Pursuing legal challenges through international trade bodies like the World Trade Organization (WTO) is another recommended approach. By contesting the legality of the proposed tariffs, the EU can seek to protect its economic interests within the framework of international trade law.

• Setting up an assembly or production facility in the U.S.
  • Avoidance of Tariffs
  • Subsidies and Incentives such as tax breaks, financial assistance for building facilities, and access to local workforce training programs
  • Depending on the region in the U.S., companies may also benefit from lower transportation and production costs when serving both U.S. and Canadian markets.
  • Last but certainly not least, being a company with a local production facility, one would also benefit from the higher import tariffs.

Influence of the Dollar / Euro exchange rate

A topic, not so much heard in the news lately, is the possible influence of a changing exchange rate between the two currencies. It could go two ways:

1. The US Dollar increases in value due to a growing confidence in the US Economy thanks to the new Administration. This would make the export of EU products in euros to the USA, cheaper. In this case, the possible increase of import tariffs, would be compensated by a cheaper Euro.

2. The US Dollar decreases in value due to a growth of importance of cryptos, as Donald Trump and his wealthy advisors from the US business world. This could cause a decrease of the Dollar towards the Euro and consequently, make European exports to the US, more expensive. However, it would make investments in the USA with a higher Euro, cheaper. Hence, the above-mentioned strategy of local assembly/production, would in this case become more interesting.

Trade War Update June 2025

As of June 2025, the U.S. and EU are trying to avoid a major trade blow-up by settling on a 10% reciprocal tariff deal. It’s not perfect, but both sides seem ready to take it over the alternative massive 50% duties on cars, steel, and pharmaceuticals. Behind the scenes, they’re looking at a UK-style deal that focuses on key sectors, with the EU offering to buy more U.S. energy and weapons as part of the bargain. Meanwhile, U.S. businesses are feeling the pressure from overlapping tariffs, with some paying up to 70% on certain imported goods.

Tensions with Canada and Mexico are still unresolved. Earlier this year, the U.S. slapped broad tariffs on both neighbors, citing everything from immigration to security. While some of those duties are temporarily paused, especially on USMCA-covered goods, Canada has fired back with retaliatory tariffs and filed a complaint at the WTO. Prime Minister Mark Carney is pushing hard for a deal within 30 days following G7 talks, but with the tariff freeze set to expire in early July, there’s still a lot up in the air.

Over in Asia, things with China have cooled for now. The U.S. and China struck a tentative agreement that keeps tariffs from spiraling even higher, capping them at 55% for the U.S. and 10% for China. That’s brought a bit of relief to U.S. ports and businesses, but big issues are still on the table, especially China’s rare-earth export limits and the U.S.’s controls on AI chips. So while trade might be flowing again, the bigger political and tech fights are far from over.

Viva Tech and Paris Air Show

VivaTech is Europe’s top event for tech and innovation, where startups and big companies come together to share ideas and build partnerships. The Paris Air Show is a major global event for the aerospace industry, showcasing the latest in aviation and space technology.

The presence of Canadian Minister Solomon (Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Innovation) and Canadian Minister Mélanie Joly (Minister of Industry & Minister responsible for Canada Economic Development for Quebec Regions), welcomed by President Macron, highlights the importance the Canada–France relationship has become. It’s a clear signal that both sides are eager to strengthen cooperation and explore new opportunities together, offering a fresh and strategic alternative to reliance on the U.S. market and suppliers.

As trade tensions rise around the world, TRANSFER.LC headed to Paris with the Canadian delegation, taking part in both exhibitions. While politicians argued over tariffs and trade deals, the team was busy connecting with international partners, exploring real opportunities through matchmaking sessions that focused on collaboration, not conflict.

With big questions hanging over U.S.–EU trade and ongoing friction between Canada and the U.S., being on the ground in Paris felt especially meaningful. TRANSFER.LC’s presence was a reminder that Canadian companies have a role to play in keeping global relationships strong, even when the politics get complicated.

On June 12, 2025, during VivaTech in Paris, TRANSFER.LC CEO Gerald Baal sat down with BNR Nieuwsradio for a conversation about global trade tensions and what they mean for Canadian businesses. He talked about the importance of staying connected in a shifting international landscape and how events like Viva Tech help companies like TRANSFER.LC build real relationships, even when the headlines are full of uncertainty.

References

• https://apnews.com/article/e53823ef7bbb7b3c46d11eca90aaa638​

• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-03/how-trump-s-tariffs-aim-a-wrecking-ball-at-the-economy​

• https://www.barrons.com/articles/euro-steadies-trump-auto-tariffs-2025-03-27​

• https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2025/02/05/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/​

• https://www.lmtonline.com/local/article/laredo-trade-expert-trump-tariffs-2025-03-26​

• https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-trade-idUSKBN2A30A9​

• https://apnews.com/article/president-trump-tariffs-imported-autos-2025-03-26​

• https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-preps-car-tariff-announcement-wall-street-is-not-ready-2025-03-27​

• https://wise.com/us/currency-converter/usd-to-eur-rate-history​

• https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/usd-eur-2025